Reliability Assessment and Risk Analysis.pdf

Engineers had to resort to the use of a safety factor mainly determined through experience and judgment. The contribution of human factors to structural safety still remains elusive for analytical treatment. The main areas of concern and application in this book are hydrosystems and related environmental engineering. Without exception, failures of hydrosystem infrastructure (e.g., dams, levees, and storm sewers) could potentially pose significant threats to public safety and inflict enormous damage on properties and the environment. The traditional approach of considering occurrence frequency of heavy rainfalls or floods, along with an arbitrarily chosen safety factor, has been found inadequate for assessing the reliability of hydrosystem infrastructure and for risk-based cost analysis and decision making. In the past two decades or so, there has been a steady growth in the development and application of reliability analysis in hydrosystems engineering and other disciplines. The main objective of the book is to bring together some of these developments and applications in one volume and to present them in a systematic and understandable manner to the water resource related engineering profession. The book is not intended to be a review of literature, but is an introduction for upper level undergraduate and graduate students to methods applicable for reliability analysis of hydrosystem infrastructure. Most of the principles and methodologies presented in the book can equally be applied to other civil engineering disciplines. The book presents relevant theories of reliability analysis in a systematic fashion and illustrates applications to various hydrosystem engineering problems. Although more advanced statistical and mathematical skills are occasionally required, the great majority of the problems can be solved with basic knowledge of probability and statistics. Illustrations in the book bring together the use of probability and statistics, along with knowledge of hydrology, hydraulics, water resources, and operations research for the reliability analysis and optimal reliability-based design of various hydrosystem engineering problems. The book provides added dimensions to water resource engineers beyond conventional frequency analysis. The book consists of eight chapters. In each chapter of the book, ample examples are given to illustrate the methodology for enhancing the understanding of the materials.